I had an interesting email from a member last week regarding historical data and stats which he uses daily within his betting. He was asking me a few questions over Email regards different ways in which to use the software. A couple of days later he sent me what he had put together.
From time to time he sends me his betting thoughts and a few ideas he is having about racing/systems/strategies. I think he likes to run things by me so I can give my seal of approval, which I certainly don’t mind doing as long as I have the free time to do so. Anyway we got chatting and he follows up with types of races and favourite winning percentages in relation to his betting activity. He uses the software ratings to whittle down his selection process by mainly using a table showing past data of races showing favourites, non favourites etc. Depending on the table he would look for laying or backing opportunities within the software. He basically structures his betting to the table and elimiates selections which dont fit the past data. Sound simple enough right?
So I asked him if he would mind me sharing his thoughts and finding with the rest of the blog readers and he said of course, but don’t mention my name..! “Why not Brian, I asked ?” he said “in case my wife reads it and she’ll know what I’ve been doing, instead of walking her dogs and looking after the mother in law while the wife does nightshift…! after laughing out loud I agreed. To be honest he would not be the first member I’ve had who hid his betting activity/hobbies from the missus. Live and let live that’s my motto, well one of them at least.
Ok so let’s get into Brian’s stuff so you can use it possibily to achieve a greater strike rate within your own betting or even to point you in a different direction all together, who knows, but it’s certainly something you should be considering if you’re not already doing so.
Races Types – The Good the Bad & the Ugly
Our greatest asset apart from having software do much of the grunt work for us is our betting bank. The way we use it and protect it is vital as without great care and attention our betting activities will simply cease. So how do we go about doing such a thing, well firstly you must ensure that you use every percentage of your bank in an effective professional manner and don’t abuse it. One way of protecting your bank is to carefully select the races that you are involved with, whether that is on a daily or weekly basis.
As anyone who has tried his/her hand in horse racing the first thing you notice is the huge amount of variables associated with a horse. Examples of these variables can range from, recent form, past form, ground conditions, distance, course, jockey and trainer stats, the list goes on.
Some variables have a greater influence on the outcome of a race whereas other variables have far less of an effect. If we look at three variables in particular, these variables are found to have a relatively greater influence on the outcome of a horse race within a race.
• Race Type; That The Horse Is Competing Within.
• Number of Runners Within The Race.
• Odds Of The Selection.
Let look at and consider the types of races and the number of runners/odds of the selection.
As a general rule of thumb on average only 35% of favourites win their races.
There are certain types of races in which favourites perform much better. There are also certain types of races in which they tend to perform far worse. By using this type of information we can point towards the right direction as to which race types are more beneficial to the type of betting you are involved with, whether it’s Backing, Laying or Dutching etc.
The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites in various race types:
As you can see by the chart the types of races with have an above average favourite strike rate (35%) are shown in the last third of the chart in silver. The above table results relate to races which were run in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.
Ok so we now have some additional data so how do we make the best use of it..? Well, that depends on what you are trying to achieve. If a selection system identifies favourites which are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race types which are shown in (Silver)since their strike rates are above the average (35%).
This provides our selections with the best winning opportunities. Those types of races which are elsewhere on the chart should be avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in these types of races, are below the average for winning favourites. This provides our selections with the worst winning opportunities statistically.
- If you are working with a selection system which identifies non-favourites which are to be backed to win, therefore opposing favourites you should concentrate on those selections that are running in race types which are shown in “blue” up to and including National Hunt Flat, as the graph clearly shows favourites which run is these types of races have strike rates that are below the average (35%).
Simply put this means that race favourites are more unlikely to win. This provides non-favourites with the best winning opportunities.
Those types of races which are shown in Silverare best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are above the average. This provides non-favourites with the worst winning opportunities.
- If a selection system identifies favourites which are to be layed to lose, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race types which are shown in blue since their strike rates are below the average (35%).
This provides selections with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are shown in Silver are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are significantly higher than normal. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing opportunities.
- If a selection system identifies non-favourites which are to be layed to lose, we should concentrate on those selections that are running in race types which are shown in Silver since the strike rates of favourites which run in those types of races are above the average (35%).
This provides non-favourites with the best losing opportunities. Those types of races which are shown in blue type are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in those types of races, are below the average. This provides non-favourites with the best winning opportunities and hence, the worst losing opportunities.
To clear up any possible confusion regarding the above backing or laying favourites or non favourites, below you will find a very helpful table which you can use easily to spot potential back or lay opportunities within any race type you may currently be looking into.
All you need to do when using the table below is to select the type of race your selection is running in, then chose between the back or lay, favourite or non favourite. If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes), then the bet has a better than average chance of succeeding (winning). If the selected element of the table contains a ‘No’, then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding (losing) and is best avoided.
For Example;
Let’s suppose that a selection system that identifies horses that are to be backed to win has identified the favourite in a Novice Chase. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (Novice Chase) row and look at the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, the bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the first graph in this post, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in Novice Chase races is 48%.
Another Example;
Let’s suppose that a laying selection system has identified a non-favourite in a Selling Handicap. From the table below, it can be seen that, if we look along the (Selling Handicap) row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore, our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the first graph in this post, you can see that the strike rate of favourites running in Selling Handicaps is only 22%. Therefore, it is highly likely that the favourite will lose and that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this particular case.
Type of Races -Selection Back/Lay
Making use of the above table will not guarantee success. However, there is every chance that the strike rate of any system you are using will be improved. You could use these graphs and tables as an added filter to your selection process or as a final check before placing any bets.
Number of Runners;
As discussed earlier, our greatest asset is our betting bank. It should therefore be used in the most effective and efficient manner possible. One way of ensuring this is to carefully select the races that you are involved with, particularly with regard to the number of runners in the race.
Although, on average, only 35% of favourites win their races, the fewer runners that there are in a race, the more likely it is that the favourite will win.
The chart below shows the strike rate of favourites by number of runners in the race:
The above table relates to races ran in the UK between 1991 and March 2008.
Ok so although we now have this additional data, how can we make the best use of it? Well, that depends on what we are actually trying to achieve.
- If a selection system identifies favourites which are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those that are running in races with less than eight runners.The strike rates of favourites which run in such races are above the average (35%). This provides favourites with the best winning opportunities.
Those field sizes which are shown at the top of the chart are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average (35%). This provides favourites with the worst winning opportunities.
- If a selection system identifies non-favourites which are to be backed to win, we should concentrate on those that are running in races which are showing below the average since the strike rates of favourites which run in such races are below the average (35%). This provides non-favourites with the best winning opportunities.
Those field sizes which are showingabove 35 % are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are above the average. This provides non-favourites with the worst winning opportunities.
- If a selection system identifies favourites which are to be layed to lose, we should concentrate on those that are running in field sizes which are shown larger than 10-11 runners since the strike rates of favourites which run in such races are below the average (35%). This provides favourites with the best losing opportunities.
Those field sizes which are shown from 6-7, 2-5 are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are above the norm. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing opportunities.
- If a selection system identifies non-favourites which are to be layed to lose, we should concentrate on those that are running in field sizes which are shown in above the 35% typesince the strike rates of favourites which run in such races are above the average. This provides non-favourites with the best losing opportunities.
Those types of races which are shown above the average (35%) bar are best avoided since the strike rates of favourites, running in such races, are below the average. This provides non-favourites with the worst losing opportunities. If all this seems slightly confusing then don’t worry we have created yet another table below which shows exactly which races you should avoid.
“Simply identify the number of runners in the race that the selection is running in and select the appropriate row from the table”
Now, look along the four remaining columns to the one that best describes the type of bet that you intend to place (back/lay) and the type of horse that you intend your bet to apply to (favourite or non-favourite). If the selected element of the table contains a (Yes) then the bet has a better than average chance of succeeding. If the selected element of the table contains a (No), then the bet has a worse than average chance of succeeding and is best avoided.
For Example;
Let’s suppose that our backing selection system has identified the favourite in a race containing seven runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (6 – 7) row of the table element under the (Back Favourite) column, it contains a (Yes). Therefore, our bet stands a better than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we take a look at the above table in this, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between six and seven runners is 40%.
Example 2;
Let’s suppose that our laying system has identified a non-favourite in a race containing 11 runners. From the table, we can see that, if we look along the (10 – 11) row and look at the table element under the (Lay Non-Favourite) column, it contains a (No). Therefore,our bet stands a worse than average chance of succeeding. In fact, if we look at the chart above, we will see that the strike rate of favourites in races that contain between 10 and 11 runners is only 33%. Therefore, it is highly likely that a non-favourite will win the race. Therefore, the selection is best avoided in this case.
Using historical data like these charts has its place within any system due to the fact that within horse racing past form, results and stats do constantly overlap and repeat themselves from year to year. I hope you can find some additional benefit from the charts and tables provided. Remember making use of them will not guarantee success, however there is every chance that the strike rate of any system you may be using will be improved greatly.
Talk Soon
Betting Software Guy
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